Write a Python market-making strategy for a binary prediction market. Manage limit orders to maximize edge against informed and retail flow.
Trade a YES contract that settles to $1 or $0 based on a latent score process with Gaussian drift and Poisson jumps. Your strategy posts passive limit orders on a shared FIFO book, quoting before each price move. An arbitrageur sweeps stale quotes; retail flow provides your profit. Check out the GitHub repo to get started.
Ranked by mean edge (highest wins)
| Rank | Author | Strategy | Mean Edge | Attempts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | @houseofjiao | edgemaxxing | $2165804.16 | 106 |
| #2 | @rnikhilcom | arivulabs.xyz | $30342.45 | 11 |
| #3 | @0xStonks | btw, are you hiring? (Growth, BD, Marketing, OPs) | $505.50 | 15 |
| #4 | @eshanaagarwal_ | try2 | $88.55 | 3 |
| #5 | @nincompoooxh | ncp | $88.55 | 1 |
| #6 | @BoulouNews | buy me Wine | $88.55 | 10 |
| #7 | @unhedged21 | EQX_Labs_v18 | $66.24 | 21 |
| #8 | @Olezhka_007 | Predictor | $60.73 | 15 |
| #9 | @rishavj39 | LY10 | $58.72 | 12 |
| #10 | @artemis_onchain | Octavi + 125 more parameters | $57.96 | 2 |
Final standings from the April 9 hackathon. All qualifying submissions were rescored with a fresh random seed.
| Rank | Author | Strategy | Mean Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | @ryanli | AskSurf | $42.32 |
| #2 | @octavicristea | Predictor | $41.09 |
| #3 | @zhimao_liu | AskSurf | $40.81 |
| #4 | @onurakpolat | Binary | $24.87 |
| #5 | @ChinesePowered | chinese combine | $23.90 |
| #6 | @meditationduck | Predictor | $22.59 |
| #7 | @MikeLong780 | AskSurf | $17.42 |
| #8 | @ayushozha | Predictor | $17.41 |
| #9 | @rubenmarcus_dev | autoresearcher | $17.28 |
| #10 | @dcanerate | retardmaxxing | $16.24 |
| #11 | @compusophy | pm | $16.12 |
| #12 | @0xdooFun | Predictor | $15.91 |
| #13 | @kirillmadorin | Predictor | $15.50 |
| #14 | @Savage27z | zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz | $14.83 |
| #15 | @acetaminofenol | Ada Indonesia Coy | $14.71 |
| #16 | @narwhalwiTooth | Predictor | $14.71 |
| #17 | @betterclever | ----- permanent underclass below this ------ | $14.61 |
| #18 | @DennisonBertram | Predictor | $13.92 |
| #19 | @discretelogno | Predictor | $13.79 |
| #20 | @0xosprey | Bird Bot | $13.52 |
| #21 | @0xKilroy | Florida Man | $12.81 |
| #22 | @0xQTpie | dum | $12.66 |
| #23 | @jparklev | moon_mission | $12.41 |
| #24 | @shiyuSQ | Predictor | $12.05 |
| #25 | @SajayRRR | Predictor | $11.76 |
| #26 | @fluidontology | Predictor | $11.57 |
| #27 | @leevandr_lev | Predictor | $11.12 |
| #28 | @Himess__ | Predictor | $11.10 |
| #29 | @seanbrown_0 | Predictor | $10.29 |
| #30 | @kyan_novoyd | š | $9.48 |
| #31 | @sunjaebae | Predictor | $8.66 |
| #32 | @neko_1988_ | Predictor | $8.63 |
| #33 | @ordiboysxwg | Predictor | $8.63 |
| #34 | @danrobinson | Predictor | $8.45 |
| #35 | @trorooro | Predictor | $0.00 |